A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
